CRUDEOIL Forecast And Technical Analysis 01-22-2018
In our latest articles and trade ideas, we have mentioned that we predict a pullback in Crude Oil prices.
There is a new fundamental which may have a negative effect on Crude Oil prices. As published in Bloomberg: Speculation Grows That OPEC Will End Cuts Early as Prices Rise.
The highlight of the news: “As oil trades near a three-year high and crude stockpiles fall rapidly, analysts are questioning whether the OPEC-led production cuts will last until the end of the year. As the producer group gears up for a meeting with its partners to review strategy in Muscat, Oman, this weekend, there are growing expectations that the deal will be phased out early.”
You may read the full article in Bloomberg: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/special-update-us-government-officially-shut-down-201801201029
However, after the news, Russian Ministry of Energy said that they have no intention to cut the supply earlier.
As you know we have entered a SHORT trade and made some pips so far. However, it was an early entry attempt.
62.50 remains as the critical support for the short term. And we can not talk about a bearish midterm trend as long as the price stays above 62.50.
Our first target of SHORT trade was 62.80 and Crude Oil prices tested 62.80. Crude ended week 63.55.
As seen in H4 Chart, 63.55 is the median line ( SMA 20 ) of the Bollinger Band and Fibonacci 38.20% retracement of the latest bullish move on H4 Chart. It is just 15 pips above EMA 50.
If the price cannot break above the current level, the shorter bearish pressure will continue and Crude will test 62.50 support. ( Needs to make an H1 closing below 62.80)
I will wait for the Asia Opening and see how the market players react to the latest news.
And I will publish our trade idea for premium members.
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Warning: All markets trade in different phases; bull and bear markets don’t start overnight. Markets build through three major phases and depending on the time frame you are trading, you will see different phases.
If you enter a trade by analysing the H4 chart frame, this is just a day trading, your stop loss and take profit levels must be set up accordingly.
WARNING ABOUT TRADE IDEAS
- We enter trades on different pairs and we look for other trade opportunities. So we recommend you to enter trades with the smaller size.
- Do not exceed 10% margin.
- Stop Loss and Take Profit Levels are +/- 15 pips minimum.
- If we do not publish an update close the 40% of your position on the TP1 level and move your stop loss to entry level.
- Some trades ( especially with 300-500 pips profit target) can take 5-6 days to hit the targets. If you do not have patience, do not enter the trade.
- Our aim is to close each with week 2500-3000 pips profit minimum.
- If we mention as “pullbacks are buying/selling “ opportunities and we publish pullback levels, you do not need to wait for a signal from us. Use these opportunities at the mentioned levels.
- All markets trade in different phases; bull and bear markets don’t start overnight. Markets build through three major phases and depending on the time frame you are trading, you will see different phases. If you enter a trade by analysing the H4 chart frame, this is just a day trading, your stop loss and take profit levels must be set up accordingly
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